Why this poll matters

Midterm elections often come down to who actually shows up. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 8, 48% of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 said they were very enthusiastic about voting this November, compared with 30% of voters who backed Donald Trump.

That gap does not guarantee a Democratic victory. It does, however, signal a turnout problem Republicans cannot ignore just a few weeks before Election Day.

Infographic showing 48 percent of 2024 Harris voters and 30 percent of 2024 Trump voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting, with Trump approval at 32 percent.
Reuters/Ipsos poll published Oct. 8, 2026. The poll surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults over six days.

What else the survey found

Reuters reported that Trump’s approval rating stood at 32% in the poll. It also found that the voters who feel most energized right now are more likely to oppose Trump than support him.

That is one reason Democrats are increasingly hopeful about the House and remain competitive in Senate races. Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to turn the conversation back toward issues that can re-energize their base.

What this does—and does not—tell us

Enthusiasm is not the same thing as a forecast. Campaigns can still shift the mood, major events can intervene, and turnout operations matter enormously. But in a midterm year, a party with less enthusiasm often has less margin for error.

For voters, the practical takeaway is simple: the political map still matters, but the intensity of each side’s supporters may matter almost as much.